作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《系统工程》 2014年第3期92-98,共7页

摘　　要： 基于可再生能源对不可再生能源替代视角研究能源企业间的动态博弈问题。假定不可再生能源企业面对的是能源储量约束,而可再生能源企业面对的是技术知识约束,并将R&D投资作为可再生能源的决策变量。本文的基本结论为:(1)可再生能源产出增长率恒为正,且不断增大;不可再生能源产出增长率恒为负,且不断降低。但在替代过程中,能源总产出增长率的符号不确定,为正的条件是技术积累的正效应大于市场博弈的负效应。(2)能源替代速率恒为正,即可再生能源会逐步取代不可再生能源。替代速率随能源间差异性降低而增加,随技术折旧率减小而增大,随贴现率的增加而增加。(3)当不可再生能源企业退出市场时,系统刚好达到鞍点均衡。即存在一条稳定路径趋向均衡点。 Based on the perspective of the substitution of renewable energy for depletable energy,this paper analyzes the dynamic game between energy enterprises.Assume that depletable energy enterprises face the energy reserves constraint, and renewable energy enterprises technical knowledge constraint.R&D investment will be as the decision variable of renewable energy.The basic conclusions are as follows.Firstly,renewable energy output growth rate is constantly greater than 0,and increases along with time,while depletable energy output growth rate is constantly negative,and will be reduced along with time.In the alternative process,the symbol of energy output growth rate is not sure.The positive condition is the accumulation of technology effect is bigger than market game negative effect.Secondly,energy replacement rate is constantly positive,which means the renewable energy will gradually replace the depletable energy.Replacement rate increases with the differences between the two energies reduce,and decreases with the technological depreciation increases.The size of the market and the discount rate has no effect on replacement rate.Thirdly,when depletable energy enterprise withdraws from the market,the system just reaches the saddle point equilibrium,i.e.there is a stable path trend to equilibrium.

关 键 词： 能源替代 不可再生能源 可再生能源 投资 替代速率 动态博弈

领　　域： [经济管理]