机构地区: 中山大学环境科学与工程学院大气科学系
出 处: 《中山大学学报论丛》 1993年第1期118-123,共6页
摘 要: 本文提出一种对于0—1天气事件寻找预报指标的方法,这种方法尤其适合于物理因子比较清楚的冰雹、雷雨、雷暴大风和暴雨等一类天气的短期预报。方法包含了选取精选物理因子和将这些因子在散布图上依次进行线性组合两个步骤。本文以珠江三角洲7月局地强风暴的预报为例详细说明了这种方法的应用,结果表明预报指标的拟合和检验很一致,且有很好的稳定性。 An objective forecasting technique is presented which contains founding choice physical factors and combining them linearly in proper order in scatter di- agams. As an example of its application, the results of fitting and testing for tb forecasting of severe local storm in Pearl River Delta in July show that the sta- bility of the technique is satisfactory.