作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《制度经济学研究》 2010年第3期117-138,共22页

摘　　要： 改革开放三十年来中国总体犯罪率持续上升。本文从经济学的视角研究影响犯罪率的因素。本文控制了警费支出的力度、失业率、制造业平均工资、男女性别比、收入不平等、经济增长率等因素的影响,发现非正式迁入率对犯罪率的影响显著为正,正式迁入率对犯罪率的影响显著为负,支持了获得正式制度的支持和保障有助于减少犯罪的假说:省内正式迁入率对犯罪率的影响显著为负而省外正式迁入率却不显著,支持了非正式制度的支持有助于减少犯罪的假说。但是社会人口流动频率的增大对于犯罪率的影响不显著,即未发现非正式制度的约束对犯罪率有显著影响。本文还发现提高制造业平均工资和经济增长率能显著降低犯罪率,这也支持了犯罪会随着机会成本的提高而减少的经济学解释。 The crime rate of China was increasing since the reform and open policies was implemented.The argument that the increase is migrants' fault is not sound and tested.The paper uses the crime economics theory crime as criterions in choosing the factors affect crime rate.The paper investigates the effects of the static population composition and dynamic of social structure on crime rates.The police expenditure,unemployment,construction industrial average wage,sex ratio,inequality, growth,and so on controlled,informal migration rate has significantly positive effects on crime rate,while the formal migration rate has negative and insignificant effects on crime rate supporting more formal support reducing crime rate.The formal migration can be divided to migration inside the province and outside the province.The coefficient of inside province migration rate is negative but outside province migration rate is positive which support the hypothesis that informal support can reduce crime rate.The mobility of society is not very significant which mean the informal constraints if not important in reducing crime rate.The paper also finds that increase of average wage of manufacturing sectors and growth can significantly decrease crime rate.This also support increasing opportunity cost will reduce crime rate.

关 键 词： 迁移 流动 犯罪 正式与非正式支持 非正式约束