机构地区: 华南理工大学电力学院
出 处: 《电力自动化设备》 2002年第10期1-6,共6页
摘 要: 提出了一种基于系统论的负荷预测集成化方法,该方法将负荷预测视为一个系统,从系统出发得出"自顶而下"的全新预测思路,从而充分体现了负荷预测系统的整体性、相似性和层次性等特点。该方法集成多种负荷预测方法得出总量预测的结果,并将总量进行具体划分,得到负荷的地理时空分布信息。体现了整体与个体的不同,又体现了个体与个体之间的相似。通过实际工作中的应用,证明了整套方法是可行的和有效的。 An integrated load forecasting method based on system approach is proposed, in which the load forecasting is considered as a system. The new forecasting concept 'from up to down', derived from system approach, describes the entirety, comparability and hierarchy of load forecasting systems. After predicting the gross of the load by integrating various forecasting methods, this method divides the gross into spatial loads to get the load distribution. It embodies both the difference between the whole and units and the similarity among units. The practical application proves its feasibility and validity.
关 键 词: 系统论 负荷预测集成化方法 系统动力学 电网规划 电力系统
领 域: [电气工程]