作　　者： ; (钱崇秀）; (董雪杰）;

机构地区： 华南理工大学工商管理学院

出　　处： 《预测》 2016年第5期48-54,共7页

摘　　要： 本文利用持续期模型，基于1996—2013年A股上市公司共16000个公司-年观测值，重新估计了经典的z积分模型、Probit模型以及Beaver等的风险模型变量对财务困境的解释作用，研究了我国上市公司财务报表信息对财务困境预测能力的变化情况。实证结果表明，财务报表信息对企业财务困境有着重要的解释力，仅资产经营利润率和杠杆率两个指标就足以解释中国上市公司的财务困境：这二者所构成的持续期模型的预测准确度达到了0．98。财务比率作为一种分析工具对预测企业财务困境有着重要的应用价值，其作用应被强调而不是被降级。 Based on 16000 firm-year observations between 1996 ～ 2013, the article re-estimates the explanatory power of financial ratios from classic Z-Score model, Probit model and Beaver et al＇ s hazard model by use of a duration model, with a view to research the predictive power of financial statement information on corporate financial distress. The empiri- cal results show financial statement information is vital on corporate financial distress. Only firm＇ s profitability and leverage can enough to explain the financial distress of Chinese listed companies. The predictive accuracy of a duration model composed of the two measurements is up to 0.98. As an analytical technique, financial statements analysis has very important application value on financial distress, which will be emphasized rather than downgraded.

关 键 词： 财务比率 财务困境 持续期模型

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]