作　　者： ; (徐维军）;

机构地区： 华南理工大学工商管理学院

出　　处： 《系统工程理论与实践》 2016年第9期2284-2292,共9页

摘　　要： 基于实际租赁市场中存在着除纯租赁和纯购买外更多租赁形式的现象,提出了二重在线租赁问题.另外,考虑到资金的时间价值不容忽视,给出了考虑复利的二重在线租赁问题最优竞争策略及风险补偿策略,为决策者提供了决策参考.首先,运用竞争分析方法得到确定性最优在线竞争策略及其竞争比.接着,考虑决策者对设备使用时长的概率预期,给出了一定风险容忍度下最优的风险补偿策略.最后,通过数值算例说明利率、风险容忍度和预期概率对最优在线策略的影响,结果表明:在不同的复利率下,风险补偿策略的最优决策时间也不同;决策者风险容忍度越大,预期成功时获得的收益也越大;在给定的风险容忍度下,概率预期的引入对该问题竞争比性能有很大的改善. In real leasing market, because there are many leasing options except for pure rent and buy options, we propose an online fashion A-B leasing problem. Besides, considered that the time value of money can not be ignored, the optimal competitive strategy and risk-reward strategy with the compound rate are given for the online fashion A-B leasing problem, which may provide references for decision-makers. Firstly, the deterministic optimal online strategy and its competitive ratio are obtained by competitive analysis. Secondly, the probabilistic forecast for the duration is taken into account, and the optimal risk-reward strategy under certain risk tolerance is determined. Finally, we illustrate the influence of the compound rate, risk tolerance and forecast probability on the optimal online strategies. The results show that the optimal decision time of the risk-reward strategy is different in different compound rates. Furthermore, higher risk tolerance can bring higher returns when the forecast is true, and the introduction of the probabilistic forecast can improve the competitive performance under given risk tolerance.

关 键 词： 二重在线租赁 复利率 竞争比 概率预期 风险补偿模型

领　　域： [经济管理] [理学] [理学] [理学] [理学]