作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 复旦大学管理学院

出　　处： 《中国会计评论》 2015年第4期389-412,共24页

摘　　要： 诸如GDP等宏观经济指标，是政府经济决策、企业投融资决策以及个人投资决策的重要参考变量，进而会对社会、企业和个人经济利益产生重大影响。因此，能否准确预测以及如何预测宏观经济变量成为重要的课题。本文遵循刚刚兴起的“从微观数据到宏观预测”理论框架研究上市公司汇总会计盈余信息对GDP预测的影响。具体地，我们首先考察上市公司披露的汇总季度盈余信息是否具有对未来季度GDP增长率的预测能力，进而考察宏观分析师在做出经济预测时是否考虑了会计盈余信息以及利用会计盈余信息的有效程度，最后考察分析师的不同特征对经济预测行为的影响。研究发现，上市公司披露的汇总季度会计盈余信息具有显著的宏观预测价值，宏观分析师在做出经济预测时也明显考虑了该会计盈余的信息，不过，不同经验背景的分析师在利用会计盈余信息方面存在显著差异。 Macroeconomic data is crucial for all economic agents to make decisions. So how to predict the macro economic variables accurately is an important research topic. This paper studies the impact of aggregate accounting earnings on GDP forecast following the ＂micro to macro＂ theory frame. Firstly, we examine whether the aggregate earnings disclosured quarterly in listed companies have macroeconomic information of GDP growth. Further, we examine whether the macroeconomic forecasters use the accounting information in their fore- casts. We find that aggregate accounting earnings can be used to predict future GDP growth, and the macroeconomic forecasters have made used of the accounting information in their forecasts, but they do not fully utilize this information in generating their forecasts. With respect to the different characteristics of the macroeconomic forecasters, we find no significant difference between foreign and domestic macroeconomic forecasters when they use accounting information in their forecasts. While compared with inexperienced forecasters, experienced forecasters could make better use of accounting information when they make macroeconomic forecasts.

关 键 词： 会计盈余 宏观经济预测 预测偏误 信息含量

领　　域： [经济管理]