作　　者： ; ; ; ; ; (薛禹胜）;

机构地区： 国网电力科学研究院

出　　处： 《电力系统自动化》 2016年第4期10-18,共9页

摘　　要： 对自然灾害停电防御的研究至今局限于单种类的自然灾害,而未计及复合灾害之间的推波助澜。自然灾害往往会造成群发性故障,为了防御小概率高风险的复合自然灾害造成大停电,需要在线跟踪外部环境的变化并有效预警。为此提出复合自然灾害造成的群发性故障的风险分析思路和框架,一方面建立电网支路在复合自然灾害下的故障率模型并计算其相关风险,另一方面考虑多种自然灾害的交互影响,在线筛选潜在故障,分析运行的安全稳定性,并提供决策支持。 The blackout prevention research against natural disasters has been limited to a single disaster so far, to the neglect of the enhancement effects between intercurrent disasters. As natural disasters often cause power system cluster faults, on-line tracking of external environment changes and effective early warning are needed to guard against blackouts caused by high risk intercurrent natural disasters with low probability. Therefore, a new line of risk analyzing thought as well as a scheme for cluster faults due to intercurrent natural disasters is proposed. On one hand, fault probability models should be developed and the risk of power grid branches under intercurrent natural disasters calculated and on the other, the interactive influence of multiple natural disasters should be considered, potential faults should he screened on line, power system operational security and stability analyzed, and decision support given.

关 键 词： 自然灾害 群发性故障 故障率 风险评估 预想故障集 稳定分析

领　　域： [电气工程]