作　　者： ;

机构地区： 北京大学光华管理学院

出　　处： 《林业经济》 2015年第7期40-44,共5页

摘　　要： 使用国内某商业银行2012年的林农贷款数据,对影响林农贷款申请批准通过概率和违约概率的因素进行研究。发现,提供林权抵押的贷款具有较低的违约概率,而利率较高的贷款申请获得批准的概率显著较高,但这些贷款出现违约的概率也显著更高,表明了逆向选择现象的存在。这一发现表明商业银行不应简单地追求高定价,而是应采取各种手段,积极消除贷款中的信息不对称问题,才能够更为有效地促进林农金融的发展。 Using a set of loan data for forestry farmers issued by a major commercial bank of China, this paper evaluates the factors that affects the probability of approval and the probability of default. This paper finds that, the loan with the collateral of forestry property has a lower probability of default. The loan application with a higher interest rate is found to enjoy a significantly higher probability of approval, on the other hand, have a even higher increase in the probability of default, which indicates the actual existence of adverse selection problems. The regression results indicates that commercial banks should not simply pursue the high pricing of interest, but take various means to decrease the degree of asymmetric information, which could more effectively enhance the development of forestry finance.

关 键 词： 林农贷款 逆向选择 样本选择 模型

领　　域： [经济管理]