作　　者： ; ; ; (刘柱）; (华威）; (陈睿）;

机构地区： 广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心广东广州510600

出　　处： 《机电工程技术》 2014年第12期97-102,共6页

摘　　要： 电网运行风险评估是对电网运行过程中可能出现的随机事件的可能性与严重性进行综合度量,是对电网进行风险预警和实施风险控制的基础。首先介绍了运行风险的概念,接着从运行风险的定义出发提出进行运行风险评估需要解决的3个关键问题,即预想场景的形成、预想场景的概率分析、预想场景的后果分析,然后分别介绍了国内外学者在这3个方面的研究成果,最后探讨电网运行风险评估的发展趋势。 Risk assessment of power grid captures both likelihood and consequence of contingency that might occur during the operation of the grid, and it is the foundation of risk pre-warning and risk control. The paper first introduces the concept of operational risk, and presents three key issues of risk-based security assessment accordingly： the formation of contingency, the probability analysis of contingency and the consequence analysis of contingency. Then the paper introduces the study of the three issues respectively. Finally the trend of risk assessment of power grid is discussed.

关 键 词： 运行风险 风险评估 预想场景 风险指标

领　　域： [电气工程]