作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学工商管理学院

出　　处： 《科学学与科学技术管理》 2014年第9期37-47,共11页

摘　　要： 技术预见作为一种制定科技发展战略规划的重要支撑活动,其良好的应用和开展对提升我国科技资源配置的有效性具有重要意义。共识是技术预见的重要目标之一,具有共识的决策能够促进技术预见的顺利开展。基于技术社会形成论、行动者网络理论等,从共识形成的角度出发探究技术预见的过程,具体从共识形成的主体、动机、内容、方式以及结果等五个方面展开。在此基础上建立了一个以共识形成为核心的技术预见模型,并以美国LED照明技术预见过程为例予以阐释。 As an important activity of supporting technological policies＆#39; formulation, technology foresight is crucial for China to improve and optimize the efficiency of the allocation of science and technology resources. Consensus is one of the significant targets of technology foresight, and a decision-making with consensus would facilitate the process of technology foresight. From the perspective of consensus-building the paper explores the process of tech-nology foresight, and builds a model of technology foresight with the consensus-building at the core, based on the Social Shaping Theory and Actor-network Theory, setting the technology foresight of LED in lighting in Ame-rica for example. The study would help decision-makers to implement technology foresight better with a compre-hensive understanding of its process especially by highlighting consensus-building.

关 键 词： 技术预见 参与式预见 共识形成 技术社会形成论 行动者网络理论

领　　域： [文化科学] [经济管理] [经济管理]