机构地区: 中山大学岭南学院
出 处: 《金融研究》 2002年第6期32-40,共9页
摘 要: 本文对长期货币中性的理论研究进行了回顾。通过使用格兰杰因果检验以及Fisher与Seater的长期导数的检验方法 ,作者发现中国在 1 978- 2 0 0 0期间 ,产出是货币供应量的格兰杰原因 ;长期导数检验的结果也表明 ,在中国长期内货币是中性的。因此 ,试图通过扩张的货币政策实现中国经济的长期持续增长是不可能的。货币政策的目标应该是为经济提供一个稳定的货币环境。 This paper reviews the literature of long run monetary neutrality. Via using methods of Granger Cause Test and Fisher Seater's Long run Derivative (LRD) Test, the author find that output is the Granger cause of money supply during the period of 1978 2000, and the test of LRD shows that we can not reject the proposition of long run monetary neutrality during the same period in China. The implication of these finds shows that it is impossible to achieve sustainable economic growth only by expansionary monetary policy. The authors argue that the target of monetary policy should be providing a stable monetary environment for the economy.