作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 中山大学数学与计算科学学院数学系

出　　处： 《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》 1993年第1期35-40,共6页

摘　　要： 对较小的洪水作风险分析时,由流量过程线截取得到的点过程现实呈现成丛性.为了适应这一特点,试图利用簇生点过程模型进行洪水风险分析.在本文中选用了Neyman-Scott 过程模型,并把它用于长江宜昌水文站1963—1984年的(阈值Q_b=45000m^3/s)较小洪水风险分析. In practice we also have to consider the case of small floods whichexceed a low critical value of flood Qb.In that case there are many more floodpeaks exceeding Qb,and the peak exceedence counts may then present somedegree of clustering which would necessitate a model other than those in [1],[2].There is a variety of cluster models in the theory of stochastic point processes,in this paper we discuss only Neyman-Scott process model and use it to analysethe small flood risk at Yichang station on the Yangtze river from 1963 to 1984.

关 键 词： 洪水 风险分析 簇生过程

领　　域： [天文地球]