作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院

出　　处： 《中国人口·资源与环境》 2014年第8期73-80,共8页

摘　　要： 近年来,作为激发经济增长潜力的重要手段,农民市民化、农村城镇化受到政界和学界的高度重视。虽然如何推动新型城镇化仍存在争议,但"以人为核心"的城镇化必须考察农民偏好迁移至哪类城市。本文立足于中国农民以家庭为重的社会现实,将推拉理论、新家庭经济迁移理论等主流人口迁移理论整合到社会心理学家Lewin的行为分析框架,提出我国农户的迁移行为公式。理论分析发现,农户的城镇迁移偏好是个体特征、家庭特征、乡村联系和城市融入等四个方面共同作用的结果。利用CGSS2010的2 355户农户调查数据,本文将农民迁移的目的地分为"小城镇"、"县城/县级市"、"地级市"、"省城"和"北京/上海等大都市"等5类,考察了农民的城镇迁移偏好现状及其指标特征,并在多重共线性和适当性检验的基础上,以多项Logistic模型来分析农民倾向迁移至哪类城市与其家庭资源、个人禀赋之间的关系。研究结果表明:与选择向小城镇迁移的农户相比,拥有较多乡村社会资本的农户更偏好迁移至县城/县级市,而不愿意去更大规模的城市定居,表明乡村联系对农户城镇迁移具有一定拉力;年龄较小、健康状况较好、教育程度和家庭收入较高、有成员长年在城市务工以及流入土地开展规模经营的农户,更偏好向地级市迁移,表明地级市已经成为市民化能力较强农户的理想迁入地;健康状况较差、子女个数较多、承包地面积较少、没有城市工作经验的农户,更乐于向省城和北京/上海等大都市移民,表明境况较差的农户反而期待去大城市闯荡一番。整体而言,土地流转能够推动城镇化,城市工作经验会让农民选择适合自己的城市,只有资源禀赋差、生存压力大的农户仍有"大城市梦"。因此,为了有序推进农民市民化,政府首先应进一步推动农村土地流转,减弱进城务工人员与乡村的联系 Recently, as one of the important ways to stimulate the economic growth potential, the farmer-worker＇ s acquiring citizenship and countryside urbanization have been widely concerned. Although how to promote the new urbanization remains controversial, the human-centered urbanization must have an insight into farmer＇ s preference to migrate to what kind of city. Based on the reality of Chinese peasant＇ s strong family values, this paper integrates the dominant theories of population migration into Lewin＇ s behavior analysis framework and presents a formula of Chinese farmer＇ s migration behavior. The theoretical analysis finds that farmer＇ s migrate preferences are influenced by the individual characters, family characters, rural link and city integration. Using 2,355 farmer＇s survey data from CGSS 2010, the paper divides migration destination into five types and analyzes the present situation of farmer＇ s migration preference and characteristics of some indexes. By using multieollinearity test and appropriateness test, the paper constructs a Muhinomial Logistic Regression model to explore the relationships of farmer＇ s preference for urban migration with their family resources and personal endowment. The measurement results show that, compared with the farmers who select immigrant to small towns, a） the farmers with more social capital prefer to migrate to the county instead of bigger city. This indicates the rural links could hinder farmer＇s urban migration, b） The young health farmers with higher education level and family income prefer to the prefecture city, and it is the same for the farmers who have members in cities for years and who get more land by circulation, c） The poorer health farmers who have more children, less land and no work experience in cities more willing to migrate to metropolitan city. As a whole, the land circulation can promote urbanization; the work experience in cities can make farmers select the suitable city. Only farmers with poor resources endowment and sur

关 键 词： 农民市民化 迁移行为公式 城镇类型偏好 多项 回归

领　　域： [经济管理]