作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所

出　　处： 《安全与环境工程》 2014年第3期103-108,共6页

摘　　要： 共因失效将引起冗余系统中多个组件同时失效,已有统计数据表明人的因素是导致共因失效的最主要原因,因此考虑人因差异是避免共因失效发生的有效方法。现有的人因可靠性分析(HRA)方法均没有考虑到人因差异对系统可靠性的影响。本文提出一种新的考虑人因差异因素的共因失效分析方法,该方法从组件降级水平的角度来定量描述人因差异对系统可靠性的影响,其基本思想是基于第二代人因可靠性方法(CREAM)来建立一个模糊逻辑模型,推导出人误概率,并将人误概率映射为组件降级水平值(CDV),而共因失效率与人因差异化之间的关系可以由CDV值求出的影响向量来表示,进而找到人因差异与系统共因失效率之间的数学关系。最后,通过实例验证了该方法的有效性。 In the redundant system, common cause failure （CCF） can result in failures of more than one module. Human error is one of the most important causes among all the causes of CCF. Considering the di- versity of human factors is an effective method against CCF due to human error. The current methods of human reliability analysis （HRA） almost never take into account the impact of the diversity of human factors on system reliability. Therefore this paper proposes a new method which can quantitatively describe the impact of the diversity of human factors on system reliability from the perspective of component degradation level. The key idea of the new method is to build a fuzzy logic model based on an extended CREAM for the estimation of the probability of an erroneous human action which is then mapped into component degradation valve （CDV）. The paper also studies the relationship between CCF rate and the diversity of human factors by performing CCF analysis based on impact vectors which can be calculated from CDV. Finally,the paper presents an example to illustrate the effectiveness of the novel method.

关 键 词： 共因失效 人因差异 影响向量 人因可靠性分析 组件降级状态

领　　域： [环境科学与工程]