作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 广东省气候中心

出　　处： 《生态学杂志》 2014年第5期1368-1373,共6页

摘　　要： 运用洪涝灾害风险度评估模型对华南地区晚稻生产和生育期的洪涝灾害风险度及其时空差异进行了评价和预测。结果表明：华南地区晚稻洪涝风险度分布大致呈东南向西北递减的特点，东南沿海地区风险度最高，中部地区居中，而桂北地区则最低，其中东南沿海地区风险度是桂北地区的1．4～2倍；从生育期来看，播种至拔节期的降水致灾效应在增加，这主要是受华南后汛期热带气旋降水强度增加的影响，而拔节至成熟期则在减少，但总体上近30年来华南地区晚稻洪涝风险度有逐渐减少的趋势，风险度的变化过程在20世纪90年代末期有明显的突变现象，此后风险度下降最为显著，下降速度达0．27710a-1华南地区晚稻洪涝风险度的变化速度有明显的区域差异性和过渡性，沿海地区在增加，尤其以珠江三角洲平原和潮汕平原增加最为显著，增加速度达0．1010a-1以上，内陆山区在减少，华南西部地区减少速度在0．0510a-1以上，这主要是地形过渡带作用的结果。由此可见，华南晚稻洪涝灾害风险的关键时期是播种至拔节期，重点关注区域是东南沿海地区． Based on the late rice flood disaster risk assessment model, this article evaluates and predicts the late rice flood disaster risk degree in its production and growth period, as well as its temporal and spatial differences. The distribution of the late rice flood disaster risk degree de- creases generally from southeast to northwest in South China, that is, the highest in the southeast coast region, moderate in the central part, and the lowest in the northern Guangxi Province. The risk degree in southeast coast of South China area is 1.4-2 times of that in north of Guangxi Province. From the changes of the flood disaster risk at different growth periods, influenced by the increase in the intensity of tropical cyclone precipitation during last flood season in South Chi- na area, the effects of precipitation-induced disaster are increasing during the period from sowing to jointing stage; but the effects of precipitation on the period from jointing to mature stage are contrary to that on the period from sowing to jointing stage. In recent 30 years, the flood disaster risk degree of late rice has a gradually decreasing trend in South China overall. Meanwhile, ab- rupt changes of the risk degree appeared obviously at the end of the 1990s, and thereafter, the risk degree decreases most significantly at a rate of 0. 277 10 a-1. The change rate of the late rice flood disaster risk degree is significantly regional and transitional. There is an increasing trend in southeast coast of South China, especially in the Pearl River Delta Plain and Chaoshan Plain, and the increasing rate is more than 0.10 10 a-1 , while there is a decreasing trend in the inland mountain of South China where the descending rate is more than 0.05 10 a-1. The main reason for such changes is the topographic transitional belt. Therefore, the key periods of the late rice flood disaster risk in South China are from sowing to jointing stage, and the most attentions should be paid on the southeast coast region.

关 键 词： 洪涝灾害风险度 晚稻 气候变化 华南地区

领　　域： [农业科学]