作　　者： ; (欧阳利思）; (王绪硕）;

机构地区： 中山大学国际商学院

出　　处： 《学术研究》 2014年第4期79-85,160,共7页

摘　　要： 基于"多国模式"的贸易引力模型,选取2004—2010年中国与东盟7国及17个主要贸易伙伴国的面板数据,对中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的贸易创造效应与贸易转移效应进行实证分析,结果表明:在控制了文化因素(共同语言和殖民地)、地理特征(陆地边界和岛国数量)和制度安排(WTO成员和区域贸易协定RTA)等变量后,CAFTA的建立对双边贸易产生127.04%的贸易创造效应,对成员国的进口产生了57.9%的贸易转移效应,且贸易转移效应每年以3.27%的速度递减。 Based on the multiple-national ‘Augmented Gravity Model', we select panel data from 2004 to 2010 about Chinese bilateral trade flow, 7 counties of ASEAN and other 17 main trade partners of China around the world to do empirical analysis about the trade creation effect and trade diversion effect of CAFTA. The result showed that: after controlled variables like cultural factors included language and colony relation, geographical features involved land borders and island country, and institutional arrangements concerning WTO membership and RTA alliance, the trade creation effect on bilateral trade brought by CAFTA was up to 127.04, the trade diversion ef-fect on import of member country of CAFTA was 57.9%, while the trade diversion effect decreased by 3.27% per year.

关 键 词： 贸易创造效应 贸易转移效应 多国模式 贸易引力模型

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]