作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 香港浸会大学

出　　处： 《地理学报》 2013年第12期1595-1606,共12页

摘　　要： 土地开发已成为当前研究的一个焦点,但是对"土地财政"现象的研究仍集中在其形成机制方面,而很少证实土地是否及如何推动了地方财政收入的增长。为此,本文基于《城市统计年鉴》(1985-2011)的面板数据,构建面板误差修正模型和随机效应模型,运用格兰杰因果检验探讨城市建设用地扩张与城市财政收入增长之间的因果关系,并对"土地财政"的影响机制、区域差异和开发效率进行初步探讨。结果显示,从1995年开始,中国城市的土地开发是推动其地方财政收入增长的格兰杰原因。但是这种效应主要为即期的影响,而对房地产开发和工业增值税的长期推动效果不太显著,这暗示了土地财政在中国有过度的倾向。从区域差异来看,土地开发对地方财政收入的推动幅度在中西部地区或在100万人口以上的超大城市更大,且随城市规模的增加其影响效果更为显著。 Land development in China has been a popular research topic in existing studies. It is not only mobilized by municipalities to attract investments and promote local economic growth, but also become the trigger to ignite various land-related conflicts. While quite a few researches have focused on the institutional contexts of ＂land coffer＂, the effects of urban land expansion on the growth of local fiscal revenue remain poorly examined. Moreover, less attention has been paid to the ＂land coffer＂ in different industries in cities with various characteristics. To help narrow this gap, this paper initiates a preliminary inquiry to the causality between expansion of urban built-up land and growth of local fiscal revenue based on the panel vector error correction model （VECM）. Using data from City Statistical Yearbook （1985-2011）, this study examines the mechanisms, efficiency and regional differences of fiscalization of land among Chinese municipal governments based on random effect models. The findings indicate that the growth of urban land is the Granger cause of local fiscal revenue since 1995. However, the expansion of urban built-up land caused only a transient increase in local fiscal revenue and had no significant long-term effect on the development of housing or manufacturing industries, which suggests that the urban land development in China mainly contributes to local fiscal revenue through short-term land expropriation, which has been excessively extracted and doomed to be unsustainable. As for the spatial differences among the three regions in China, the promoting effects of land development are more significant within the cities in eastem region or those with a larger population size. Nonetheless, land development generally has negative effects on housing and manufacturing industries for Northeast China, central region and westem region in the long run. This implies that the intensifying land expropriation across the country is rather short-sighted. To prevent waste of precious farmland in

关 键 词： 土地财政 城市建设用地 财政收入 区域差异 格兰杰因果检验 中国

领　　域： [建筑科学]