作　　者： ; ; ; (贺赤诚）;

机构地区： 中国地质大学工程学院教育部长江三峡库区地质灾害研究中心

出　　处： 《地学前缘》 2013年第6期156-161,共6页

摘　　要： 2013年7月22日7时45分,在甘肃定西市岷县和漳县交界处(34.5°N,104.2°E)发生了MS6.6级地震,震源深度20km,死亡95人,伤1 366人,经济损失达210亿元。文中回顾利用第一作者独创的指纹法对于此次地震做出临震预测的过程与依据,并探讨发震断裂与发震机制。利用SW地震前兆监测仪(简称SW仪),输出地磁分量、地电分量、地应力分量、谐振分量、地倾斜分量等9通道或15通道异常分量-时间曲线,当压缩时间轴,就可以输出不同的异常几何图像。不同地区的地震具有不同的前兆几何图像。相同地区的地震具有相同或相似的前兆几何图像。因此,可以根据特定前兆几何图像,找到将要发生地震的震中位置。这就相当于每个人都有特定指纹,根据指纹可以找到对应的人。所以,利用SW仪输出图像预测地震的方法称为指纹法。按照7年来对于前兆图像与对应指纹之间关系的观测,一般是提前6天收到临震指纹信号。震级预测则需要对于同通道指纹波幅进行比较与计算。于是,指纹法创造出单台站预测全球地震三要素的奇迹。作为专家内部交流,2013年7月15日10:45,根据2013年7月14日第五通道指纹与2013年6月2日同通道指纹的对比,文章第一作者预测2013年7月19日,甘肃(35.19°N,103.69°E)将发生MS5.1级地震。2013年7月22日定西市岷县MS6.6级地震表明,预测震中准确,发震时间比预测时间仅仅延迟3天,震级比预测值大1.5级,总体上是一次成功的临震预测。构造背景、地壳结构和震源机制研究认为,临潭—礼县左行逆冲活动断裂是定西岷县地震的发震断裂。中地壳低速(高导)层尖端与临潭—礼县左行逆冲断裂接合部位是流变界面能量释放的震源位置,为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例。 At 7：45 of July 22,2013,an earthquake occurred at the border between Minxian and Zhangxian of Dingxi City（34.5°N,104.2°E）,Gansu Province with magnitude of MS6.6.The depth of the focus is 20km.In this disaster,95people died,1366people were injured,and the total economic loss reaches 21billion Yuan RMB.We review the imminent prediction process and basis for the earthquake using the fingerprint method created by the first author.We also discuss the triggering structure and the seismic mechanism of the earthquake.Nine channels or 15channels of anomalous components-time curves can be output from the SW monitor for earthquake precursors（or simply SW monitor for short）.These components include geomagnetic,geoelectric,crust stresses,resonance,and crust inclination components.When we compress the time axis,the output curves become different geometric images.The precursor images are different for earthquake in different regions.The alike or similar images correspond to earthquakes in a certain region.In this way,we can predict the location for a coming earthquake using the precursor images.This can be analogous to a person＇s definite fingerprint.We can find a person with a fingerprint.Therefore,the method predicting earthquake by using the precursor images is called fingerprint method.According to the 7-year observation of the precursor images and their corresponding earthquakes,we usually get the fingerprint 6days before the corresponding earthquake.The magnitude prediction needs the comparison between the amplitudes of the fingerprints from the same channel.In this way,the fingerprint works a miracle that we can predict the three key elements of earthquake using single station data.At 10：45of July 15,2013,the first author predicted that there would be an earthquake occurring on July 19,2013,in Gansu（35.19°N,103.69°E）with the magnitude of MS5.1on the basis of the comparison between the fingerprints from the channel 5on July 14,and on June2,2013.The Minxian MS6.6earthquake occurred on July 22,2013indi

关 键 词： 岷县地震 临震预测 指纹法 临潭 礼县断裂 三层次构造模式

领　　域： [天文地球] [天文地球] [天文地球]