作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 中华人民共和国国家统计局

出　　处： 《数量经济技术经济研究》 2013年第11期125-143,共19页

摘　　要： 通过建立面板门限模型拓展基于"宾效应"的购买力平价(PPP)方法,并实证研究富裕程度、经济自由程度、贸易成本及经济增长速度等因素对PPP与汇率背离的影响。研究表明:富裕程度与贸易成本是解释两者背离的关键因素;PPP与汇率背离程度随人均GDP的增长存在显著的门限效应;将"宾效应"描述为倾斜的"微笑曲线"能更好地刻画价格水平指数(PLI)与人均GDP关系的阶段性特征;人民币汇率在2005年及以后的低估程度平均约为18%。 This paper extends the approach used to study real exchange rate by establishing a panel threshold model. We do some empirical researches on the influ- ences of several factors such as wealth, the degree of economic freedom, trade cost, and economic growth rate on the degree of PPP＇s departure from Exchange Rate. The results show that., the level of to explain the departure; Along with the wealth and trade cost are the key factors growth of per capita GDP, the degree of PPPrs departure from exchange rate has significant threshold effects and can be di- vided into three stages; Describing ＂Penn effect＂ as a ＂smile curve＂ can reflect the threshold effect relationship between PLI and per capita GDP better; After 2005, the RMB exchange rate is underestimated about 18% on average.

关 键 词： 购买力平价汇率 门限 回归模型 国际比较

领　　域： [经济管理]