作　　者： ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 中国人民银行广州分行

出　　处： 《南方金融》 2013年第8期9-20,73,共13页

摘　　要： 本文运用IS-LM-BP模型探讨离岸市场发展对货币发行国货币政策的影响机制,研究人民币跨境套利、套汇行为的主体范围、渠道的变化及其对内地利率水平、汇率水平和货币供应量的影响,利用动态随机一般均衡模型测算了香港人民币离岸市场发展对内地货币政策影响的效应强度。研究结果表明:从短期来看,香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币政策的影响相当有限;从长期来看,随着香港人民币离岸市场规模的扩大以及境外人民币回流渠道的增加,香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币政策将会产生实质性的影响。为此,当前,可以进一步增加内地向香港注入人民币资金,扩大香港离岸人民币资金池规模。同时,要完善跨境人民币资金流动监测和管理机制,强化主体管理和账户管理,采取分类管理措施,尽量使香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币政策的影响保持在可控范围内。 This paper uses IS-LM-BP Model to analyze the impact of the offshore market development on the currency issuing country＇s monetary policy making. It also focuses on the cross-border RMB arbitrage＇s participants, channel, and its impact on the mainland＇s interest rate and exchange rate. Besides, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used in this paper to estimate the the development effect of Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market on the mainland. The result shows that in the short term, Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market will have limited impact on the mainland＇s monetary policy making; in the long run, as Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market expansion, as well as the increase of offshore RMB＇s back channels, Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market may have substantial impact on the mainland＇s monetary policy making. Currently, China carl increase the injection of RMB funds from mainland to Hong Kong, to expand the pool of Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB funds. Meanwhile, a developed, mature cross-border RMB liquidity monitoring and management mechanism should be built immediately, and several other steps need to be taken to make sure that the impact of Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market on the mainland is appropriate, and under control.

关 键 词： 货币政策 香港人民币离岸市场 跨境资本流动 动态随机一般均衡模型

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]