作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 清华大学公共管理学院

出　　处： 《中国工业经济》 2013年第9期19-30,共12页

摘　　要： 本研究基于中国1990—2011年省际面板数据,运用由协整检验和向量误差修正模型组成的多元分析框架,检验了中国东西部的电力消费和经济增长之间的因果关系。作者根据新古典主义的生产函数,选择资本和劳动力变量来处理因遗漏变量造成的回归误差。研究发现,东西部电力消费与经济增长的关系既存在差异,又总体趋同:在充分考虑了资本和劳动力的影响后,从全国看,东西部均存在从经济增长到电力消费的短期因果关系;长期因果关系上,东西部存在差异,东部存在从电力消费到经济增长的长期因果,西部存在二者间的双向长期因果;长期来看,资本、劳动力和电力消费之间在影响经济增长方面具有彼此替代的作用。本文的发现表明,适度放缓经济增长速度有利于中国节能目标的实现。因果检验的结果还表明,通过引导性的投资政策和高效的投资,以及劳动者素质的提高,节能和经济增长的矛盾可以得到破解,进而实现可持续的绿色发展。 This study, based on Chinese provincial data from 1990 to 2011, using the multivariate framework consisting of cointegration test and the vector error correction model, analyzes the panel causality between economic growth and electricity consumption of the east and the west areas of China. Following the neo-classical aggregate production function, the capital and labor variables are selected to avoid the regression bias due to the omission of variables. It is found that the relations between electricity consumption and economic growth for the east and west have differences but converge generally： by considering the impacts of capital and labor, for the whole country, both the east and the west, there is short-run causality from economic growth to electricity consumptionl For the long-run, the east and the west have differences. The east has a long-run causality from electricity consumption to economic growth, and the west has a hi-directional long-run causality. In the long-run, the impacts of capital, labor and electricity consumption on economic growth are substitutions of each other. The findings show that a moderate economic growth rate is beneficial for China to realize the energy conservation targets. It is also found that, by the directional investment policies, the effective investments and the improvement of the quality of labor, the conflict between the energy conservation and economic growth can be solved and the sustainable green development can be realized.

关 键 词： 电力消费 经济增长 面板协整 向量误差修正模型 因果分析

领　　域： [经济管理]