作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 贵州财经大学资源与环境管理学院

出　　处： 《管理科学学报》 2013年第9期9-19,共11页

摘　　要： 基于动态CGE模型构建了中国能源-经济-环境政策模型,根据碳税和碳排放交易的政策属性,设计了单一碳税、单一碳排放交易以及碳税与碳交易相结合的复合政策等不同情景,模拟分析了不同政策的减排效果、经济影响与减排成本.结果显示:1)碳税的GDP损失率最小,减排成本较低,但不能确保2020减排目标的实现;2)碳排放交易情景下机制覆盖行业承受的减排压力较大,受到的冲击过大,减排成本较高;3)碳排放交易与适度碳税相结合的复合政策,一方面可以确保减排目标的实现,另一方面可以使较为分散的排放源承担一定的减排义务,降低机制覆盖行业的减排压力,减排成本适中,是较优的减排政策. This paper developed a China energy-economic-environmental policy model based on a dynamic CGE model, designed a carbon tax scenario, a cap-and-trade scenario and a policy mix scenario, and simulated the economic and mitigation effects under different scenarios. The results show that only carbon tax policy cannot realize the 2020 mitigation target. Only cap-and-trade will cause high mitigation costs and tremendous mitigation pressure to regulated sectors. Combination of cap-and-trade with a low carbon tax can realize the 2020 mitigation target with modest mitigation costs and mitigation pressures for regulated sectors. Meanwhile, the dispersed emitter will also bear mitigation commitments at a certain extent. The results of this paper suggest a mixed policy combining cap-and-trade with a low carbon tax as the first choice for carbon mitigation pot- icy in China.

关 键 词： 碳减排政策 碳税 碳排放交易 碳税与碳交易相结合 动态 模型 中国能源 经济 环境政策模型

领　　域： [经济管理]