作　　者： ; ; (张丽）; (闫冬梅）; (张增祥）;

机构地区： 中科院遥感与数字地球研究所北京100094

出　　处： 《遥感信息》 2013年第4期62-68,74,共8页

摘　　要： 基于滨海新区1984年和2000年土地利用数据,通过Logistic回归分析该区土地利用变化驱动机制,应用CLUE-S模型预测滨海新区2006年和2009年土地利用空间分布,采用2006年和2009年土地利用现状数据进行验证,预测精度达到75%以上,表明该模型在该区域有较好的适用性。在此基础上进一步模拟2020年滨海新区在自然增长情景、经济快速发展情景和生态保护情景3种情景方案下的土地利用空间格局。结果表明经济发展情景下的模拟结果与该区2020年的土地利用规划图的一致性最好,说明该研究区在未来仍处于快速发展时期,城市化过程加快,大量的农业用地被侵占、坑塘被填挖、生态系统严重破坏。通过该预测模型模拟结果,可为海岸带生态脆弱区的保护以及适应新一轮规划修编中土地的可持续利用研究提供参考数据。 Based on the LUCC data of 1984 and 2000, this paper used logistic regression analysis and CLUE-S model to fore- east the land use spatial patterns of 2006 and 2009. A series of natural and socio-economic factors were used as driving factors. Compared to the interpreted LUCC data,the predicted result has the high accuracy with Kappa up to 0.75. The result indicates that The CLUE-S model can simulate the LUCC of coastal zone of Tinjin Binhai New area in a higher accuracy. Based on the ad- justed model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 were simulated for the natural increase scenario, economic development scenario, and ecological protection scenario, respectively. The results show that there are obvious differences between spatial patterns of LUCC for different scenarios. The simulation results under economic development scenario are coincided with the re- ality. The forecasting maps indicate that the study area is still in a rapid development in the future. It will be speeding up the process of urbanization and much of the agricultural land will be appropriated, pond water surface will be cut and fill, and eco- system will be seriously damaged.

关 键 词： 土地利用变化 预测模型 情景模拟

领　　域： [自动化与计算机技术] [自动化与计算机技术]