作　　者： ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 南京大学国际地球系统科学研究所

出　　处： 《植物生态学报》 2013年第7期631-640,共10页

摘　　要： 基于单类别支持向量机方法的物种分布模型,利用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)气候情景模式和联合国粮食与农业组织(FAO)的全球土壤数据,模拟1981-2099年我国毛竹(Phyllostachys edulis)的潜在空间分布及变化趋势,比较考虑土壤因子前后模拟结果的差异,旨在探究土壤因子对毛竹潜在空间分布模拟结果的影响。结果表明,仅以气候因子为模拟变量和同时考虑气候与土壤因子为模拟变量的毛竹潜在空间分布模拟均具有较高精度,毛竹潜在分布区表现为面积增加并向北扩张。模拟因子重要性分析表明表征温暖程度的气候因子在毛竹潜在分布模拟中起主导作用,而表征土壤质地和酸碱性的土壤因子以限制性作用为主。同时考虑气候与土壤因子的模拟结果具有较高的模拟效率,且在未来气候变化情景模式下毛竹潜在分布区面积增幅与向北迁移幅度均小于仅使用气候因子的模拟,表明土壤要素对毛竹潜在分布具有明显的限制作用,该结果对现在的毛竹潜在分布模拟研究具有重要的补充作用。 Aims We aimed to detect the impact of soil factors on predicting the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis （bamboo） by comparing the prediction accuracy and the spatio-temporal pattern of potential habitat of P. edulis. Methods Using IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） climate change scenario datasets and FAO （Food and Agriculture Organization） Soil Map of the World, the potential distribution of P. edulis in China was predicted from 1981 to 2099 based on species distribution models, one-class Support Vector Machine （SVM）. We used two groups of predictors： one included climate factors only, and the other had both climate factors and soil factors. Important findings The SVM based on both predictor groups predicted the potential distribution of P. edulis, and the potential habitat expended and migrated northward with time. Factor importance analysis showed that the climate factors correlated with warm conditions played a driving role in the simulation of the potential habitat of P. edulis, while soil factors associated with soil texture and pH mainly impacted the simulation as limiting factors. However, the prediction using both climate and soil predictors performed with higher efficiency, and the intensity of the potential habitat expending and migrating was less than that of the group of climate factors only. The finding suggested that the soil factors significantly constrain the potential habitat of P. edulis, and soil constraint should be considered in predicting species distribution in future.

关 键 词： 气候变化 毛竹 潜在分布 土壤 物种分布模型

领　　域： [生物学]