作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 武汉大学

出　　处： 《财贸经济》 2013年第7期5-16,共12页

摘　　要： 积极财政政策减少民间投资和消费的影响称为挤出效应,因此,把促进民间投资和消费的影响称为挤入效应。本文从综合的角度运用空间计量模型实证检验了我国1998-2011年积极财政政策对民间投资和消费的影响。结果表明,在大部分年份中,积极财政政策对民间投资和消费都产生了显著的挤入效应,但现有财政体制有弱化积极财政政策挤入效应的倾向。本文认为,对财政政策效应的评价应该放到整个体制环境中去,才能做出正确的判断。挤入效应表明我国经济体制改革是朝着市场化方向发展的,但需要不断完善。 The crowding-out effect refers to the reduction of private investment and consumption caused by proactive fiscal policy; similarly, proactive fiscal policy＇s boost of private investment and consumption can be called crowding in effect. By adopting spatial econometric model, this paper tests empirically the impact of the deficit fiscal policy to private investment and consumption from 1998 to 2011 via a comprehensive perspective. The results show that the proactive fiscal policy generates significant crowding-in effect to private investment and consumption in most years. However, the current fiscal institution has a cendency to weaken the crowding-in effect. This paper argues that the evaluation of the effects of fiscal policy should be placed in the institutional environment in order to draw right conclusions. The crowding-in effect indicates that China＇s economic reform faces to a market-oriented development, but still need to be improved continuously.

关 键 词： 积极财政政策 财政体制 挤入效应

领　　域： [经济管理]