作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《国际贸易问题》 2013年第7期167-176,共10页

摘　　要： 现有全球经济失衡研究在忽视顺差国比较研究的同时,未能全面揭示贸易与金融发展之间的复杂关系。本文选取不同经济背景的中国与德国作为顺差国别比较的研究对象,考察贸易与金融发展的质性与量性指标,从实证角度回答贸易与金融发展是否相关这一争议问题。实证研究结果表明:(1)中国信贷量的上升与中国贸易的增长具同步性,德国信贷量的上升则会减少德国的贸易账户盈余。(2)中国信贷量与银行效率的提高均导致贸易增长,信贷量和银行效率对中国贸易变动的贡献基本相当;德国银行效率的提升导致贸易增长,而贸易增长则导致出口品技术含量的提升。本文提出,中国贸易与金融发展还处于较低的层次,中国贸易强国发展战略须与中国的金融强国发展战略同步。 In order to discuss the relationship between trade and financial de- velopment of surplus countries, this paper selects China and Germany as subject countries with contrasting economic backgrounds, and conducts an empirical analy- sis by combining qualitative and scale indexes. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis： （1） The relationship between trade and financial develop- ment varies between China and Germany; （2） Qualitative and scale indexes of fi- nancial development are major determinants of China＇ s trade volume by account- ing for 22%-22% of China＇s trade volume movement on a 10-quarter basis. As to Germany, an increase in its trade volume is associated with an improvement in the technology-content of its exports, while Germany＇s trade growth is boost- ed by its banking efficiency to some extent. To conclude, this paper suggests that China＇ s development strategy for making itself a trade giant should go in line with its financial development strategy.

关 键 词： 全球经济失衡 金融发展 中德比较 质性指标 贸易

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]