作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 广东商学院金融学院

出　　处： 《经济理论与经济管理》 2013年第6期44-53,共10页

摘　　要： 本文从人力资本、储蓄与投资、制度创新三个层面研究了二次人口红利的实现与经济持续增长的关系。通过改进的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数和索洛增长模型,对中国31个省市的面板数据进行实证分析,运用系统GMM估计方法对实现二次人口红利的影响因素与经济增长的关系进行验证。结果表明:人口老龄化并不必然导致经济衰退;人力资本、储蓄率对经济增长有正面影响;初始人均GDP对经济增长有负面影响,说明各地区的经济增长出现条件收敛;人口增长率、劳动参与率对经济增长的影响并不十分显著。 This paper studied on the relationship between the realization of the second demographic dividend and sustained economic growth from three aspects on human capital, savings and investment and institution innovation. Firstly, this paper applied a modified Cobb-Douglas production function and Solow growth model to make an empirical analysis on panel data of China＇s 31 provinces. Secondly, system GMM estimation was used to test the relationship between economic growth and the factors that affect the reali- zation of the second demographic dividend. The research showed that ageing of the population did not nec- essarily lead to economic recession. Human capital and saving rate had positive influence on economic growth. The initial GDP per capita had a negative impact on economic growth, which indicated conditional convergence in China＇s regional economic growth. The population growth rate and labor force participation rate had not a significant influence on economic growth. Finally, this paper put forward some proposals.

关 键 词： 刘易斯转折点 二次人口红利 经济增长 系统 估计方法

领　　域： [经济管理]