作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 暨南大学经济学院

出　　处： 《国际贸易问题》 2013年第3期35-45,共11页

摘　　要： 中国与主要贸易伙伴之间的经济周期协同性已经成为对外开放过程中的重要现象。本文重点探讨了垂直专业化、产业内贸易与经济周期协同性之间的传递机制,并选取1991-2010年中国与38个贸易伙伴的数据,分析了经济周期协同性的影响因素。利用工具变量广义矩估计法(GMM-IV)进行实证检验,结论表明:垂直专业化分工通过"需求—供给溢出"效应对协同性产生显著的正向作用,是影响经济周期协同性的最重要变量;产业内贸易则通过"资源转移效应"对协同性产生负向影响,而标准的双边贸易指数则变得不再显著。此外,经济周期同步变化的背后,FDI和产业结构的影响也不容忽视。 The phenomenon of business-cycle comovement between China and its primary trade partners has prevailed in its course of opening up. This pa- per probes into the passing mechanism between vertical specialization, intra-indus- try trade and business-cycle comovement, and selects the data between China and its 38 trade partners from 199l to 2010 to analyze the factors influencing busi- ness-cycle comovement. After the empirical testing via GMM-IV, we draw the fol- lowing conclusions： vertical specialization, as the most critical variable, yields sig- nificant, positive effect on comovement through ＂demand-supply side spillover＂ mechanism; intra-industry trade has adverse effect on comovement by means of resource shifting effect; standard bilateral trade index turns insignificant after be- ing integrated with vertical specialization index. Finally it should be noted that such factors as FDI and industrial structure cannot be ignored.

关 键 词： 垂直专业化 经济周期协同性 滤波

领　　域： [经济管理]