作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 中南民族大学经济学院

出　　处： 《国际贸易问题》 2013年第2期38-48,共11页

摘　　要： 本文从美国服务生产的贸易效应视角,探讨全球经济失衡中的逆差形成原因。以美国生产结构的变化为切入点,通过构建服务与商品两部门理论模型、统计分析与回归检验,讨论美国服务生产的贸易效应及其与收支失衡的关系。理论研究与模型分析证明,服务生产的非贸易品属性,使得美国经济在偏向于服务生产的产业结构调整中,形成了逆贸易倾向的增长方式。根据统计数据所做的实证分析显示,美国产业划分成生产与服务两部门时,在生产上存在着与理论分析相一致的逆贸易效应。在商品消费上,美国存在着商品边际进口倾向和商品进口需求收入弹性大于1的顺贸易效应。这两种相反的力量,会使出口增长速度低于进口增长速度,形成逆差。回归方程的计量检验发现,美国服务生产与美国商品贸易逆差之间存在因果关系,服务增长速度超过商品增长幅度时,商品贸易逆差增加。 This paper tried to discuss the trade deficit cause of global imbal- ance in the sight of trade effect of US service product. So we analyze the trade effect of US service production and its relation with payment imbalance through designing two industry theory models, i.e. service and goods production, statisti- cal analysis and regression method. The that the nontrade character of service growth pattern of anti-trade, during the theory research and model analysis show product induced US economy to the time of American industry structural ad- justment which biased to service production. According to the US statistical data, the empirical results show that the tendency to service industry has the anti-trade effect, which means that the export rate of product in the comparative advantage industry is lower than the comparative disadvantage industry. At the same time, there is pro-trade effect in goods consumption, which may be seen from the coef- ficients of the marginal goods import tendency and goods import demand elastici- ty of income. Or the US goods import demand didn t decline with the domestic industrial structural trends to services. The two opposite strengths can lead the speed of export increase slower than that of import increase and result in trade deficit. The regression equation ordinary least square tells us that there is Grang- er causality relationship between US service product and US goods trade deficit. When the service increase rate is higher than that of goods, goods trade deficit becomes more.

关 键 词： 经济失衡 美国商品服务生产 贸易 逆差

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]