机构地区: 上海市气象局
出 处: 《气象科学》 2012年第5期500-507,共8页
摘 要: 运用SDSM统计降尺度对江淮地区五个代表站点进行统计降尺度研究,应用独立观测资料验证发现统计降尺度模式具有一定的可靠性。在A2排放情景下,对5个测站的未来情景研究发现,到21世纪中叶,各测站普遍增温1.5℃左右,到本世纪末,增温幅度在4℃左右。这一结论与LMDZ动力降尺度模式结果基本一致,但统计降尺度的模拟值要略高于动力降尺度。 SDSM statistical downscaling method was used to project and evaluate the surface temperature over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valleys.The results indicate that the SDSM model was reliable and the surface temperature at 5 representative stations would be increased by about 1.5 ℃ in 2050s under IPCC SRES A2.By the end of 21st century the warming would be around 4 ℃.This conclusion is consistent with the dynamical downscaling method(LMDZ).But the warming amplitude is larger than that by using SDSM method.
领 域: [天文地球]