作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 武汉大学水利水电学院水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室

出　　处： 《水力发电学报》 2012年第5期35-40,共6页

摘　　要： 基于灾害系统理论构建了东江流域洪灾风险评价指标体系,针对各指标的模糊性和不确定性,将信息论中的熵值理论应用于洪灾风险评价中,借助GIS技术建立了基于熵权的洪灾风险空间模糊综合评价模型。实际应用结果表明:东江流域洪灾风险度最高的地方为河源市区、惠州市区、惠阳以及龙岗等经济较发达地区;而安全区域则位于流域中上游经济发展较为落后的山区;评价结果与流域风险实际情况吻合较好,验证了本文所提出的模型科学可靠,结果相对客观可信。 Entropy theory was used to combine with traditional fuzzy comprehensive assessment method to develop a spatially fuzzy model for flood hazard risk in this work. To improve weight allocation, weight coefficients of evaluation factors were derived from the available data reflecting information entropy. Application with GIS to the Dongjiang river basin indicates that the highest risk of this basin appears in the regions of Heyuan city, Huizhou city, Huiyang district, Dongguan city and Bao＇an and Longgang, while the relatively safe region covers mountainous areas less economically developed in the lower-middle Dongjiang. Comparison with a few historical floods of the basin shows that the assessment map agrees well with the observed flood risk and it provides a reference for flood control and disaster assessment.

关 键 词： 防洪工程 洪水灾害 风险评价 熵权 模糊综合评价 东江流域

领　　域： [水利工程]