作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 中山大学地理科学与规划学院

出　　处： 《地理与地理信息科学》 2012年第5期86-89,共4页

摘　　要： 将挽救个人生命、保障生命安全、避免灾害造成的生命损失而必须投入的成本作为生命风险价值的体现,将用于修复灾害破坏的生态环境而必须投入的成本作为生态环境的风险价值,基于这种新的风险理念和风险价值观,以泥石流灾害为例,提出了综合风险评估的组合模型。模型输入变量涉及泥石流灾害特征、人类经济社会属性、自然生态环境条件共14个指标,模型输出结果为货币化表达的生命风险价值、经济风险价值、生态环境风险价值及综合风险价值4个数值。以汶川地震区都江堰市八一沟泥石流灾害为例,对评估模型进行了初步检验。 Risks may be classified as individual risks and integrated risk. Individual risks include the risk of life, the economic risk and ecological environment risk. Integrated risk is the sum of the three risks. Risks may also be classified as relative risk and absolute risk. The relative risk is commonly expressed as a value between 0 and 1. The absolute risk is required to represent the monetized value. The monetized risk is the needs of social development and disaster prevention and mitigation, and also the cutting-edge research in disaster science. To save individual lives, to protect the lives and safety, and to avoid the loss of life caused by disasters is put the cost as a manifestation of the value of life risk; the investment to repair the damaged ecological en- vironment by disaster is as the cost of the risk value of the ecological environment. Based on this new risk philosophy and risk values, taking debris flows for example, a combination of integrated risk assessment model is presented in this article. The model input variables relate to the three aspects of the characteristics of debris flows, human economic and social attributes, and the natural environment conditions, a total of 14 indicators. The model output results are the monetized life risk value, economic risk value, and ecological environment value at risk, as well as the integrated risk value. For example of debris flow disaster in Bayi gully of Dujiangyan, the initial validation and practical application of the assessment method are carried out. The practicality and reliability of the assessment model has yet to be more practical in the future to further inspection.

关 键 词： 泥石流灾害 综合风险 风险分析 评估

领　　域： [天文地球] [天文地球] [天文地球]