作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 中国科学院研究生院

出　　处： 《自然资源学报》 2012年第7期1101-1111,共11页

摘　　要： 为评价实现我国2020年碳排放强度和非化石能源发展目标的经济和环境影响,论文应用基于动态CGE模型的中国能源-环境-经济模型,模拟了不同减排政策下的减排效果及经济影响。模拟结果显示,征收40元/t CO2碳税,将碳税作为政府收入、居民收入、削减影响较大行业的生产税、以及用于非化石能源投资,2020年所能实现的减排量分别相当于CO2排放强度在2005年的基础上下降35.87%、35.80%、35.07%和40.13%,非化石能源的消费量将占到总消费量的10.99%、11.00%、10.75%和15.82%。政策情景下对经济的影响并不是十分显著,GDP的损失不超过0.2%。综合考虑到减排效益和经济影响,将碳税收入用作对非化石能源的投资,不仅有利于促进我国实现2020年碳排放强度目标,而且对于实现非化石能源发展目标也发挥着重要的作用。 This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental effects of fulfilling China＇ s unilateral international climate policy and non-fossil fuel pledges for 2020. A Chinese Energy - Environment - Economic Model based on CGE model with detailed electricity technologies for Chi- na is used to simulate four different mitigation policies. The results show that with 40 yuan/tCO： of carbon tax rate and use the carbon tax revenues as government income, household income, reduce output tax rate of most impacted sectors by carbon tax, and as the investment of non-fossil energy, can reduce CO2 emission intensity by 35.87% , 35.80% , 35.07% and 40. 13% in 2020 compared to 2005, as well as non-fossil energy consumption will account for 10. 99%, 11.00%, 10. 75% and 15.82% of the total energy consumption, respectively. The mitigation costs under policy scenarios compared to baseline are rather modest and stay below 0. 2% of GDP. If the tax revenue is used to alleviate output tax of the most affected industrial sectors, GDP may even in- crease. This paper suggests that the policy of combining carbon tax with investing non-fossil ener- gy is a good policy choice, which can not only promote the achievement of carbon intensity target in 2020, but also provide funds for non-fossil energy development to stimulate the realization of the non-fossil fuel consumption goal. In addition, taking into account the co-benefits of lower fos- sil-fuel use suggests that for most mitigation policies considered these benefits outweigh any losses in GDP. Hence, China may benefit from unilateral climate policy in the short run, independent of possible long-term effects on global warming.

关 键 词： 碳税 中国能源 环境 经济模型 非化石能源投资 减排效果

领　　域： [环境科学与工程]