作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 广州大学地理科学学院

出　　处： 《经济地理》 2012年第7期100-106,共7页

摘　　要： 碳排放的研究是认识和发展低碳经济的基础。采用2000—2009年广东省化石燃料消费和人口、经济产出等数据,对广东省10年来化石燃料消费所产生的碳排放进行了估算,分析碳排放量在时间和空间变化上的地域差异,并采用因素分解法对碳排放的影响因素进行了定量分析。结果表明:①2000—2009年间广东省碳排放总量变化大、增长速度快,时序内表现出快速、平稳和稳定增长三个阶段性特征;工业部门是广东碳排放的主要力量,且行业差异性特征明显。②通过对广东省各地级市碳排放量的聚类分析得知,广州、深圳、东莞、佛山4城市和多年GDP变化类似,聚类于碳排放量最高的等级,和其他城市差距较大;广东省碳排放的变化在空间上呈现出"中心—外围"结构,表现出由集聚向扩散的演变规律。③能源结构、能源消耗强度、经济发展状况以及人口因素等是影响广东碳排放地域差异的主要因素。 Researches on the carbon emissions are an important basis for understanding and developing Low-carbon economy.Based on the statistical data of fossil fuel consumption,population and economic output in Guangdong during 2000-2009,the paper estimates the carbon emissions from fossil fuel in recent ten years of Guangdong Province,analyzes the regional difference of carbon emissions from the spatio-temporal angle,and then analyzes the influencing factors quantitatively with LMDI method.Results can be obtained as follows：（1） During 2000-2009 in Guangdong Province the total carbon emissions had great changes and it increased at a faster pace,which showed three characteristics in the time series：rapid,steady and stable growth;carbon emissions in Guangdong was mainly from industrial plants and different industry had obviously different characteristics.（2） According to the cluster analysis of carbon emissions between prefecture-level cities in Guangdong,it indicates that for many years,the carbon emissions of Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Dongguan and Foshan cluster in the highest levels with large gap between other cities,and the spatial changes of GDP are similar.Meanwhile,changes in carbon emissions presented a＂center-periphery＂structure in space,showing the evolution rules of clustering to spread.（3） Analysis also shows that,economic development,energy consumption structure,energy consumption intensity,industrial structure,import and export trade and regional economic policy are major factors leading to the regional differences of carbon emissions in Guangdong.In addition,other impacts of carbon emissions are also not allowed to ignore,such as the development level of transport,dweller standard of living and LUCC and so on.

关 键 词： 碳排放 变化特征 空间分异 因素分解 广东省

领　　域： [经济管理]