作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 华中农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处： 《林业经济》 2012年第6期97-101,共5页

摘　　要： 运用ARIMA预测模型,对湖北省农村生物质资源进行分门别类的预测评估。结果表明：（1）湖北省生物质资源蕴藏丰富,可开发潜力巨大。2015年湖北省农村生物质总蕴藏量达87229.96万t,其中农业生物质达4554.85万t,林业达65219.62万t,畜禽粪便达17637.94万t,生物质资源在理想状态下转换成生物质能源的数量将达到47776.63万t折标准煤。（2）襄阳、十堰、荆州、咸宁、黄冈等地市是生物质能的主要分布区。（3）农业生物质受种植习惯和自然因素等影响,在地域上分布不平衡,主要以稻谷、玉米、油菜、小麦和棉花秸秆为主。 Using ARIMA model, the rural biomass potential in Hubei province has been estimated separately. The results are ： （ 1 ） biomass resources are rich in Hubei Province, and have tremendous potential for development. To- tal reserves of biomass in Hubei rural areas in 2015 will be amounted to 872.30 million tons, which amounted to about 45.55 million tons of agricultural biomass, forestry amounted to about 652.20 tons, and manure up to 176.38 million tons. Ifbiomass resources converted to hiomass energy in the ideal state, the number will reach 477.77 mil- lion tons fold of standard coal. （2）the main distribution area of biomass energy are Xiangyang, Shiyan, Jingzhou, Xianning, Huanggang City. （3） With different growing habits and natural factors, agricultural biomass are imbal- anced in geographical distribution, and mainly composed office, corn, canola, wheat and cotton residues.

关 键 词： 模型 湖北 生物质资源 潜力评估

领　　域： [经济管理]