作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 中国科学院研究生院

出　　处： 《当代财经》 2012年第6期61-68,共8页

摘　　要： 货币供给是否具有内生性以及内生性程度如何,关系到中央银行以货币供给量为中介目标的货币政策的有效性。通过实证分析,从2001年第2季度至2011年第2季度的数据上看,我国货币供给表现出越来越强的内生性。主要表现在:(1)货币乘数在短期内波动较大,极不稳定;(2)货币供应量和基础货币之间不存在稳定的关系,即货币乘数在长期内也不具有可测性;(3)基础货币量的变动在很大程度上受外汇储备和央行对存款银行债券变动的影响;(4)基础货币量和货币乘数之间存在相反的变化趋势。因此,必须改革我国现存的强制结售汇制度;完善国有企业、银行的预算约束机制,提高再贷款的门槛;加强对商业银行经营行为的监管;积极推进利率市场化改革。 Whether money supply is endogenous and what is the extent of the endogenesis are closely related to the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the central bank, whose intermediate tar- get is associated with money supply. Based on the data from the second quarter of 2001 to the sec- ond quarter of 2011, this empirical analysis finds that China＇s money supple tends to have a stronger and stronger endogenesis, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects： （1） the money multiplier fluctuates greatly in the short-term, extremely unstable; （2） there exists an unstable relationship be- tween the money supply and the monetary base, i.e. the money multiplier has no predictability even in a long term; （3） the changes of base money are greatly affected by the changes of the foreign ex- change reserve and the changes of the central bank＇s policy on the bonds of the deposit banks; （4） there exists an opposite changing tendency between the base money and？money multiplier. Therefore, we should reform the existing mandatory foreign exchange settlement and sales system, improve the budget restricting mechanism for the state enterprises and banks, raise the conditions for re-loan, strengthen the supervision of the operational behavior of the commercial banks, and actively boost the reform of interest rate marketlization.

关 键 词： 货币供给 内生性 货币乘数 基础货币

领　　域： [经济管理]