作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 中国矿业大学北京资源与安全工程学院

出　　处： 《北京科技大学学报》 2012年第5期495-499,共5页

摘　　要： 利用青海省安全监督管理局数据库近六年以来矿山事故数据,采用信息扩散理论,从矿山事故概率和矿山事故人员死亡概率两个方面对高海拔、寒、旱地区矿山事故进行风险分析,建立了适合本地区特殊要求的矿山事故分析模型.分析模型、参数和预测结果均与实际情况吻合,说明应用信息扩散对高海拔、寒、旱地区矿山事故进行风险分析,能够预测出该地区矿山企业年均发生事故的概率及矿山事故人员死亡概率. Mine accident data for nearly 6 years from the work safety administration of Qinghai Province in northwestern China were studied from the two aspects of mine accident probability and mine accident death probability. The risk analysis of mine accidents in high-altitude, cold and drought areas was performed by means of the information diffusion theory. A mine accident model was built which is suitable for these areas with special requirements. The analysis model, parameters and prediction results coincide with the ac- tual situation. It is revealed that the information diffusion theory can be applied to the risk analysis of mine accidents in high-altitude, cold and drought areas and predict the average annual probabilities of mine accidents and personnel death in the mine enterprises for technical support and policy recommendations.

关 键 词： 煤矿 事故 信息扩散 风险分析

领　　域： [矿业工程]