机构地区: 广州大学商学院
出 处: 《物流工程与管理》 2012年第3期41-44,共4页
摘 要: 科学合理的港口货物吞吐量预测是港口主管部门进行正确决策和规划的重要内容,且港口货物吞吐量预测是港口规划及其可行性研究的重要组成部分。文中在趋势预测、二次指数平滑预测和灰色预测GM(1,1)模型三种单项预测基础之上,采用预测精度更高、可靠性更好的组合预测方法对广东省未来港口货物吞吐量进行科学预测,以及对广东省港口物流发展提出对策建议。 Scientific and rational port cargo throughput forecast is an important part for port authorities of correct decision-making and planning.Forecasting for Port Throughput Capacity also is an important part of Port planning and feasibility study.In this paper,Trend Forecasting,based on three kinds of individual forecasts including Trend Prediction,the quadratil exponentiac smoothing forecast and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model,make scientific forecast of port cargo throughput of Guangdong Province by using a higher prediction accuracy and better reliability combination forecasting method,and then put forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the Guangdong port logistics' scientific development.
关 键 词: 港口货物吞吐量 组合预测 二次指数平滑预测 灰色预测
领 域: [经济管理]