作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

出　　处： 《广东外语外贸大学学报》 2011年第6期23-28,共6页

摘　　要： 为了研究我国投资、消费对经济增长的拉动作用以及三者之间的动态关系,本文建立向量自回归模型(VAR),对我国1978—2010年最终消费支出、资本形成总额与实际国内生产总值三者的关系进行脉冲响应与方差分解分析,实证结果表明我国最终消费支出对资本形成总额与经济增长有显著的、持续的正向作用;资本形成总额对其自身、最终消费支出与经济增长的长期作用微弱。基于本研究,本文认为我国要保持持续稳定的经济增长,政府大规模投资应逐步退出,而应不断扩大内需,转变经济增长方式。 To consider the role of investment and consumption in boosting economic growth and the dynamic relationship among these, this paper has established a vector autoregressive model to analyze the relationships between China＇s final con- sumption and gross capital formation as well as the GDP from 1978 to 2010, with the methods of impulse response and variance decomposition. The empirical results indicate that our final consumption has a noteworthy, continual and positive effect on economic growth and on the other hand the gross capital formation has a long-term weak effect on final consumption and economic growth as well as on itself. Based on this, it is suggested that to keep a continual and stable economic growth China should enlarge domestic demand and change economic growth mode rather than relying on large-scale governmental investment.

关 键 词： 经济增长 最终消费支出 资本形成总额 模型

领　　域： [经济管理]