作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 华南农业大学经济管理学院金融系

出　　处： 《财贸经济》 2011年第11期105-111,137,共7页

摘　　要： 本文基于住房使用成本模型,通过构建租金和房价变动的预测模型,并使用北京、上海、广州和深圳四大城市1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的时间序列数据,考察了租金房价比对未来租金和房价变动的预测能力。研究发现:⑴北京、上海的租金房价比与未来房价变动呈负向关系,与现值模型预测相反,而深圳的二者关系为正,广州的租金房价比对于未来房价变动不存在统计意义上的预测能力;⑵北京、广州和深圳的租金房价比可以预测未来的租金变动率,二者呈反向关系,上海的相应统计值不显著。本文的经验结论表明,租金房价比作为估值指标在中国城市住房市场上的适用性值得谨慎判断。 Based on housing user cost model,this paper constructs predictive models of rent and price.By using time-series data of Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen from the second quarter of 1993to the first quarter of 2010,it examines the ability of rent-price ratio to predict future changes of rent and price.Empirical results show that:⑴the relationship between rent-price ratio and future changes of price in Beijing and Guangzhou is negative,while that of Shenzhen is positive,and no statistically significant relationship of the two variables is found in Guangzhou; ⑵Except for Shanghai,rent-price ratio in Beijing,Guangzhou and Shenzhen can predict future changes in rent with an inverse relationship between the two variables.Results provide empirical supports to the view that it should be careful to apply rent-price ratio as an indicator to evaluate China’s urban housing market.

关 键 词： 住房市场 租金房价比 估值指标

领　　域： [经济管理]