作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 吉林大学环境与资源学院

出　　处： 《水电能源科学》 2011年第6期1-3,55,共4页

摘　　要： 以通榆县为例,基于1955～2008年降水资料,分别采用线性回归方法、Mann-Kendall方法、Morlet小波分析方法和Hurst指数法分析了降水量序列变化特征及趋势。结果表明,通榆县降水量在过去54年内呈下降趋势,平均每10年减少4.7 mm,其中雨季下降较为明显;年降水量具有2、11、30年的周期,其中以30年周期最为显著;H值表明,研究区未来一段时间内降水总体仍将呈现下降趋势,持续性中等。从各季节来看,春秋季降水下降明显,且持续性很强。按周期推算,研究区干旱少雨的年份还将持续约10年,不利于粮食生产,应做好长期抗旱准备。 Taking the Tongyu city for an example, the linear regression method, M-K, Morlet wavelet analysis and Hurst index analysis are used to analyze the changes of precipitation characteristics and trends based on precipitation data from 1955 to 2008. The results show that the precipitation of Tongyu city in the past 54 years appears downward trends The precipitation averagely decreases 4. 7mm every 10 years; especially in rainy season, it decreases obviously; annual precipitation has 2a, 11, 30a cycles while the 30a cycle is the most obvious; H value indicates that the precipitation will appear downward trend for some future time on the whole and it has a general persistence; for each season, spring and autumn rainfall decrease significantly and the persistence is very strong; the drought will continue for about 10 years, which should be prepared for a long-term drought resisting.

关 键 词： 通榆县 降水量 趋势性 周期性 持续性

领　　域： [天文地球]