作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学土木与交通学院

出　　处： 《中国农村水利水电》 2011年第5期145-148,共4页

摘　　要： 通过分析东江流域形成洪水灾害的主要影响因素,构建了流域洪灾风险评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确定了各评价指标的权重,基于GIS技术运用模糊综合评价方法对东江流域洪水灾害风险进行了综合评价。结果表明:东江流域洪灾风险度最高的地方为河源市区、惠州市区、惠阳区以及龙岗等经济较发达地区;而较安全区域则位于流域中上游经济发展较为落后的山区。评价结果与往年大洪水造成的灾害区域基本吻合,表明基于格网的空间模糊综合评价方法用于洪灾风险评价是可行的,评价结果也是合理的。 By analyzing the main factors of the flood disasters in the Dongjiang River basin on the index system of water,rainfall,runoff,typhoon,elevation,slope,population,GDP,land and road with ArcGIS software,this paper adopts the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） to determine the weights of various factors,and uses fuzzy comprehensive assessment（FCA） to obtain the flood disaster risk maps of Dongjiang River Valley.The results show that： The highest flood disaster risk zones in Dongjiang River Valley include Heyuan City,Huizhou City,Huiyang District,Dongguan City and Bao＇an and Longgang which are inside the East River Valley,as well as the relatively economically developed areas in the lower and middle reaches of East River Valley.The relatively safe regions include the mountainous areas which are less economically developed in the lower and middle reaches of Dongjiang River Valley.High-risk areas are typical in the plain and close to the main road of the river.The results are consistent with the flood disasters in previous years,thus,conclusions are credible.

关 键 词： 洪灾 风险评价 模糊综合评价 东江流域

领　　域： [水利工程]