作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 复旦大学经济学院

出　　处： 《金融研究》 2011年第4期1-15,共15页

摘　　要： 本文利用涵盖我国全部42个行业的2007年投入产出表,测算了所有行业的贸易汇率风险敞口。在此基础上,本文构建了一种新的定量分析方法,来分析人民币升值对各个行业的产品出口和中间品进口的不同影响,并用它模拟了在不同的升值幅度下各行业利润率的动态变化。结果显示:22个行业的利润率会因升值而提高,20个行业的利润率则会因升值而降低。另外,受损行业一般是劳动密集型和研发投入较少的竞争性行业,大多数受益行业则是属于资本密集型和研发投入较多的垄断性行业。因此,人民币升值的具体幅度和节奏要同国家在一定时期的产业和就业政策相协调,通过贸易结构的调整来降低行业的贸易汇率风险敞口,为优化经济结构、促进竞争与就业和保持经济平稳可持续增长作出贡献。 Using the input-output table of 42 industries in 2007, the paper computed the risk exposure of trade exchange rate with all industries, and constructed a new quantitative analysis method to describe the influence of RMB appreciation to the Chinese Export and Import. The paper also simulated the dynamic change of all industries＇ profit margin under the different range of RMB appreciation. The First conclusion is that the RMB appreciation can increase the profit margin of 22 industries, lower the profit margin of 20 industries. The second conclusion is that the Labor-intensive industries were hit seriously by the RMB appreciation, the Capital（ skill）intensive industries benefited mostly from the RMB appreciation. The paper indicates that the range and timing of RMB appreciation should coordinate with the industry policy, we can reduce the risk exposure of exchange rate by adjusting the trade structure, which contributed to the adjustment of economic structure and growth pattern.

关 键 词： 人民币升值 汇率风险敞口 利润率变动 投入产出表

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]