作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 中国人民大学公共管理学院土地管理系

出　　处： 《中国软科学》 2011年第1期82-91,共10页

摘　　要： 采用专家调查法和层次分析法,构建土地资源经济安全综合评价指标体系,并以上海市为例进行实证分析。研究表明:(1)随着人口增加和经济增长,土地资源的数量约束逐渐强化,但是经济增长以及技术进步等因素会提高土地资源利用的质量和效率,从而减少土地资源数量约束的制约作用。1999-2008年上海市土地资源数量安全和结构安全的评价值逐年下降,2008年均处于"高度不安全"状态,但是效率安全和质量安全呈现逐年上升趋势,2008年接近"绝对安全"和达到"基本安全",因此土地资源经济安全程度总体上处于"基本安全"状态。(2)随着我国社会主义市场机制的逐步建立和完善,土地资源价格安全问题的重要性在增加。1999～2008年上海市土地资源价格安全的评价值波动较大,2008年仅接近"基本安全"的最低限,这种市场价格的大幅波动对市场效率的影响以及对国民经济的损害不容忽视。 This research establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system for economic security of land resource by using Delphi and AHP methods.An empirical analysis of Shanghai is conducted.The conclusions are as follows.（1）With the population increasing and economic growth,the quantity security of land resource has been gradually strengthened.But the factors such as economic growth and technological progress will improve the utilizing quality and efficiency of land resource,so as to reduce the restrictions of quantity constraint of land resource.From 1999 to 2008,the evaluation values of quantity security and structure security of land resource in Shanghai decreased year by year which are both on the level of ＂highly insecure＂ in 2008.Meanwhile the efficiency security and quality security increased year by year which are approaching ＂absolutely safe＂ or reach ＂basically safe＂ state.Therefore,the overall economic security of land resource is generally on the level of ＂basic security＂ in Shanghai.（2） With the gradual establishment and improvement of socialist market mechanism of China,the importance of price security of land resource is increasing.From 1999 to 2008,the evaluation value of price security of land resource in Shanghai has fluctuated sharply which is only approaching the minimum level of ＂basic security＂ in 2008.The influence of the significant fluctuation of market price on market efficiency and its damage on national economy should never be neglected.

关 键 词： 土地资源 土地利用 经济安全 综合评价 层次分析法

领　　域： [经济管理]