作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处： 《科技管理研究》 2011年第3期178-182,195,共6页

摘　　要： 通过对内生增长模型求解表明:经济增长与平均储蓄倾向、人力资本、科研投入所占总资本比例、垂直创新对最终产品生产的外部性正相关,与生产中间产品所占总资本比例、生产最终产品所占总资本比例、水平创新的期望利润值与垂直创新期望利润值比例、中间产品之间的替代程度和预期水平创新成功率负相关。在一定范围内,经济增长与水平创新、垂直创新水平正相关,与预期垂直创新成功率负相关。进一步通过实证分析,中国经济增长主要依靠平均储蓄倾向的增长,垂直创新和水平创新对经济增长的作用还很弱小;中国投资增长也主要取决于平均储蓄倾向,技术创新尚未成为投资增长的首要决定因素。 By the endogenous growth model, this article proved that economic growth is positively correlated with average propensity to save （APS） , human capital, the proportion of scientific research investment in aggregate social capital and the externality of vertical innovation on final good production. It also proved that economic growth is negatively correlated with the proportion of intermediate good investment in aggregate social capital, the proportion of final good investment in aggregate social capital, the proportion of the expected value of vertical innovation and the expected value of a horizontal innovation, the substitution degree of intermediate good and the expected arrival rate of horizontal innovation. Economie growth is positively correlated with horizontal innovation and vertical innovation, and it is negatively correlated with the expected arrival rate of vertical innovation to a certain extent. By further empirical analysis, economic growth depends mainly on growth of APS; vertical innovation and horizontal innovation on economic growth are still weak in China; investment growth depends mainly on growth of APS in China too; technological innovation has not yet become the primary determinant factor of investment growth.

关 键 词： 垂直创新 水平创新 内生增长 中间产品 平均储蓄倾向

领　　域： [经济管理]