作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学天然气利用研究中心

出　　处： 《天然气工业》 2011年第1期7-12,107-108,共6页

摘　　要： 2009年底的哥本哈根会议开启了世界走向低碳能源的新时代。为此，分析了低碳时代世界及中国一次能源构成的变化情况，结论指出：在控制温升不超过2℃的情况下，要求把能源消耗产生的COz控制在100×10^8t／a，这将导致目前石油、煤、天然气、核能与可再生能源在总能耗构成中的比率逆转和终端用能模式巨变，2020--2050年中国天然气将在工业燃料、商住和民用能源、调峰发电、交通几大领域占据主导或重要地位，并将在冷热电联供分布式能源系统、CNG汽车和LNG汽车技术领域自主创新，领先于世界；中国非常规天然气资源丰富、开发前景看好，自给率可达70％；2020--2030年中国天然气消费规模将达到（4000-6000）×10^8m^3／a，将对世界天然气市场发生积极、正面的影响。 The climate conference in Copenhagen opens the door for the world to a new era of low-carbon energy structure.In view of this,it is analyzed how the primary energy structure will get changed by the low-carbon times in the world as well as in China.The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis.The CO2 emission from the energy consumption is required to be reduced by 100×108t/a under a rising temperature of no more than 2 ℃,which will lead to a significant change in end use modes and reversal proportions of oil,coal,natural gas,nuclear energy and renewable energy sources in the total energy consumption structure.In particular,during the years of 2020-2050,natural gas in China will dominate in the fields of industrial fuels,commercial and civil end uses,peak-shaving power generation,and transportation,etc.,showing its superiority in CCHP distributed energy system,CNG and LNG vehicles with independent-innovation technologies taking the lead in the world.Unconventional natural gases are extremely rich in China with a bright exploitation prospect and the degree of self-sufficiency will be up to 70%.During the years of 2020-2030,natural gas consumption in China will be 4000-6000×108m3/a,which will have positive and active impact on the global natural gas market.

关 键 词： 低碳能源格局 中国 天然气 冷热电联供 汽车市场规模 资源和供应保障

领　　域： [石油与天然气工程]