作　　者： ; ; ; ;

机构地区： 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

出　　处： 《生态学报》 2011年第2期529-537,共9页

摘　　要： 探讨了基于安全格局分析和"源-汇"生态过程理论,利用土地利用变化模型,研究以面源污染控制为目标的土地利用空间模拟情景分析。基于"源-汇"生态过程理论,利用空间数据库计算了密云县水库周围面源污染控制的景观安全格局,分析了低安全格局中的有较大面源污染风险的土地利用变化过程。基于现状社会经济驱动因子和邻域因子,利用CLUE-S模型模拟了2个情景下的土地利用发展:情景1为现状趋势发展,情景2为反规划途径,即限制低安全格局中具有面源污染风险的土地转变过程,其余地区按现状趋势。结果表明:情景1现状趋势发展下,未利用地复垦和农业用地结构调整两种土地利用转变过程有较大面源污染风险。情景2低安全格局中被限制发展的耕地和果园在模型模拟中转移到了中安全格局内,低安全格局中植被恢复能够增强了对上游污染物的截留;虽然面源污染"源"类型土地总量没有发生变化,但是由于土地格局的优化,整体面源污染风险会降低。 Miyun County located in the North-East of Beijing City.Miyun reservoir in the Miyun County is the major drinking water source of the Beijing residents.Non-point pollution control of Miyun reservoir is the primary task in the Miyun County,in the mean while,agricultural development is also important for the income increase of the local people.This study was seeking to optimize the land-use spatial distribution which is one of the important factors influencing the watershed hydrology.Land-use change scenarios for non-point pollution control adapted to Miyun County were generated.Integrating landscape security pattern analysis with a land-use explicit model based on the ＇Source-sink＇ theory was chosen as one method.Landscape security pattern is one of the potential spatial patterns in this region.This potential pattern which composed of strategic portions and distributions of the landscape has crucial importance in controlling certain ecological processes.In our case study,landscape security pattern in the Miyun area was focused and analyzed for non-point pollution control of the Miyun reservoir.＂Source-sink＂ theory assumed the land-use can be classified into two types： ＇source＇ and ＇sink＇ land types,based on their functions in pollutant transport and detention.The land-use change processes which will potentially contribute to the non-point pollution were identified in the low security area.Next two scenarios were simulated using the CLUE-S model.Scenario one investigates the land-use change based on historical land-use dynamics.Scenario two examines the development obeyed to a negative planning approach,which focus on the conservation of low security area.In the model operation,applied land-use dynamics are identical for both scenarios except for a land-use change restriction within the low security pattern area which will probably increase the non-point pollution.Results for scenario one depict two processes,one is the unused land reclamation by arable land and second a transformation of arable la

关 键 词： 反规划 景观安全格局 土地利用模型 面源污染

领　　域： [环境科学与工程]