作　　者： ; ; ; ; (唐健）;

机构地区： 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院

出　　处： 《资源科学》 2010年第12期2343-2348,共6页

摘　　要： 耕地保护政策的绩效评价是我国粮食安全及土地政策调控中的重要课题。本文运用德尔菲法量化了耕地保护政策强度,并在此基础上运用C-D生产函数计量经济模型分析了我国耕地保护政策的实施对粮食生产的贡献程度。研究结果表明:粮食生产的耕地、劳动力、化肥、农业机械等传统投入影响因素对粮食总产量提高发挥了重要贡献作用;同时,粮食价格指数、国家财政支农力度、耕地保护政策强度等市场与政策因素也对粮食生产具有明显的贡献作用,并且其影响粮食生产的重要性在某种程度上已经超过了劳动力;其中,耕地保护政策强度每加强1%,则粮食总产量可提高0.023%;但国家财政支农力度与粮食价格指数的影响均大于耕地保护政策强度,且粮食价格指数的影响相对最高,说明国家支农惠农政策及粮食价格对产量增加的直接作用与经济诱导比耕地保护政策的间接作用贡献大,价格的经济诱导作用比政策效果要强。耕地保护政策是粮食生产中的基础性政策保障,为保证我国粮食安全发挥了重要作用,粮食生产绩效是耕地保护政策的重要结果表征之一。 Evaluation of the Performance of the cultivated land protection policy plays a prominent role in policy-making associated with China’s grain security and land regulation.As an important policy in the process of utilization of cultivated land,the cultivated land protection policy has a major impact on grain production and agricultural development.The implementation of the cultivated land protection policy has been shown to be able to increase the grain production.The authors first introduced the concept of the strength of the cultivated land protection policy,and quantified this concept on the basis of the Delphi method.Based on this,the authors synthetically analyzed the contribution of the implementation of China’s cultivated land protection policies to grain production using the C-D production function econometric model.Results showed that traditional input factors,such as cultivated land,labor,fertilizer,and agricultural machinery,showed a significant contribution to improvement of the grain production.Meanwhile,market and policy factors,such as the grain price index,national financial support for agriculture,as well as the cultivated land protection policy,had also a great contribution to grain production,with suggesting the importance of their impact on grain production exceeding that of the labor to some extent.A 1%increase in the effort of cultivated land protection policy would result in a 0.023% increase in the total grain output.The relative contribution rate of the cultivated land protection policy to grain production was up to 43.06%.It was stated that the impact of national financial support for the agriculture and grain price index was greater than the impact of the cultivated land protection policy,suggesting the largest impact contributed by the grain price index.It was also indicated that the direct effect of the national financial support for agriculture and grain price on increases in grain production,and the effect of economic guide had a larger contribution than the indirect effect of the

关 键 词： 耕地保护政策 政策强度 实施绩效 粮食生产

领　　域： [经济管理]