作　　者： ; ; ; ; (李宁）;

机构地区： 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室

出　　处： 《安全与环境学报》 2010年第5期221-226,共6页

摘　　要： 介绍了风险数值分类的方法,弥补了目前风险分类多从定性角度进行描述,缺少客观性的缺陷。以与当前生活紧密相关的44种风险为样本,基于风险管理过程和大众对风险的认知过程所关注的风险属性要素,采用Havashi数量化理论Ⅲ的数值分析法,在MATLAB程序的支持下,计算各种风险的得分,进行风险聚类,得到综合风险分类结果。结果表明,44种风险被分成了简单风险、复杂风险、模糊风险/不确定风险。分类结果体现了国际风险管理理事会IRGC注重风险性质认知的理念,符合风险管理的实际需要。 This research is aim to introduce the method of risk nu- merical taxonomy, and to make up for the defect of the err-rent risk classification, which described more often from the qualitative point of view rather than objective point of view. In this paper, the author se- lected 44 kinds of risk samples which closely related with the current life. Based on the risk perception process of the public who concern about the element of risk attributes, the author adopted the numerical analysis method of Hayashi＇ s quantification theory type III, as well as evaluated the degree of risks with the support of MATLAB program, finally come to the purpose of risk numerical classification. The re- sults showed that the 44 risks have been divided into simple risk, complex risk and fuzzy risk / uncertainty risk. The division of classi- fication results embodies International Risk Governance Council （IRGC） which has put a lot of significance on the risk property. The results meet the actual needs of risk management, which can be used as an effective tool for risk management. The risk classification method based on Hayashi＇ s quantification theory type III is of high operability, which provides important significance both to the risk classification standardization and improvement of risk management tools.

关 键 词： 环境科学技术基础学科 综合风险分类 风险认知过程 数量化理论 风险管理

领　　域： [环境科学与工程]